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日辰股份(603755):冷冻烘焙并表贡献增量,控费得当盈利能力提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 20% in the stock price compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [6][14]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 204 million yuan for H1 2025, representing an 8.63% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 35 million yuan, which is a 22.64% increase year-on-year [2]. - The integration of the frozen baking business has contributed positively to revenue growth, with the new segment generating 10.49 million yuan in Q2 2025 [3][4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its baking business and sees it as a significant growth driver for the future, despite current market pressures [4]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 37.35%, with a slight decrease of 0.71 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the lower margin from the newly integrated frozen dough business [4]. - The total expenses decreased by 3.12 percentage points year-on-year in H1 2025, with significant reductions in marketing expenses contributing to improved profitability [4]. - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is adjusted to 78 million, 93 million, and 108 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 22%, 18%, and 17% [5]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q2 2025, revenue from various product categories showed mixed results, with sauce products declining by 8.23%, while powdered seasonings and food additives grew by 10.84% and 77.96%, respectively [3]. - Revenue from different sales channels in Q2 2025 varied, with the restaurant channel growing by 3.18%, while direct e-commerce and retail channels saw significant declines of 65.97% and 46.86% [3]. Market Outlook - The company is strategically expanding its baking business, particularly focusing on pre-mixed baking powders, which are expected to become a key growth area [4]. - Despite challenges in the external market environment, the company is leveraging existing customer relationships and expanding its product offerings to drive steady growth [4].