Shede Spirits (SH:600702) Ping An Securities·2025-08-26 02:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [1][11] Core Views - The company is experiencing a recovery in profitability due to refined expenditure strategies, with a focus on core products and market expansion [4][7] - The company reported a revenue of 2.7 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 17%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 440 million yuan, down 25% year-on-year [4] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.13 billion yuan, a decline of 3.4% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 139% to 100 million yuan [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 680 million, 740 million, and 800 million yuan respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's core products [7] - The company’s gross margin for Q2 2025 was 60.6%, with a net profit margin of 8.6%, indicating improved profitability [7] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 11.58 billion yuan in 2025 to 12.9 billion yuan in 2027, while total liabilities are expected to increase from 4.02 billion yuan to 4.37 billion yuan over the same period [8] Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company’s revenue is expected to decline by 24.3% in 2024, followed by a smaller decline of 6.7% in 2025, before returning to growth in subsequent years [9] - The net profit margin is projected to recover to 13.5% by 2026, with a return on equity (ROE) expected to reach 9.4% [9] Cash Flow Analysis - The operating cash flow is expected to turn positive in 2025, with a forecast of 2.03 billion yuan, indicating improved cash generation capabilities [10] - The company is expected to maintain a healthy cash position, with cash reserves projected to grow from 2.5 billion yuan in 2025 to 4.1 billion yuan by 2027 [8][10]