迎驾贡酒（603198）：外部环境承压，降幅环比加大

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a 16.9% year-on-year decline in total revenue for the first half of 2025, amounting to 3.16 billion yuan, and an 18.2% decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders, totaling 1.13 billion yuan. The second quarter of 2025 saw a more significant decline, with total revenue of 1.11 billion yuan, down 24.1% year-on-year, and net profit of 302 million yuan, down 35.2% year-on-year. The performance was below expectations [4][6] - The external demand environment remains under pressure, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027. The expected net profits for these years are 2.16 billion, 2.30 billion, and 2.52 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -16.5%, 6.5%, and 9.3% [6] - The company’s high-end liquor sales were particularly affected, with a 25.7% year-on-year decline in revenue for the second quarter, primarily due to insufficient recovery in banquet and business scenarios [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 6.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 14.7%. Net profit is expected to be 2.16 billion yuan, down 16.5% year-on-year. The earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 2.70 yuan [5][6] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is forecasted to be 73.7%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 20.0% [5][6] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for the second quarter of 2025 was negative 179 million yuan, compared to negative 36 million yuan in the same period last year [6]