HAIDILAO(HK:06862) Guoxin Securities·2025-08-26 03:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][15][16] Core Views - The company reported a decline in core operating profit by 14% in H1 2025, with revenue of 20.7 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year. The core operating profit was 2.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 14%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.76 billion yuan, down 13.7% [1][7] - The hot pot business faced revenue pressure, with a 9% decline to 18.58 billion yuan, accounting for 89.7% of total revenue. However, the takeaway business saw significant growth, with revenue increasing by 59.6% to 930 million yuan, now the second-largest revenue source [1][7] - The company maintains a high cash dividend payout ratio of 95%, distributing 0.309 yuan per share, consistent with the previous year [3][15] Revenue and Profitability - For H1 2025, the company experienced a slight decline in gross margin by 0.8 percentage points due to increased portion sizes to enhance dining experience. Employee compensation as a percentage of revenue increased by 0.5 percentage points, while other expenses rose by 1.1 percentage points, primarily due to increased takeaway costs [3][13] - The overall net profit margin was 8.5%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year [3][13] Store Expansion and Performance - As of June 2025, the total number of hot pot restaurants was 1,363, a net decrease of 5 from the beginning of the year, indicating a cautious expansion strategy. The company operates 14 restaurant brands with a total of 126 restaurants, including a significant increase in the barbecue brand, which added 46 new locations [2][9][13] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 4.22 billion, 4.75 billion, and 5.42 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 22% for each year. The expected price-to-earnings ratios for these years are 17.9, 15.9, and 13.9 times [3][15] - The outlook remains positive as the hot pot business is expected to recover with normalized turnover rates and steady increases in customer spending, alongside contributions from the "Red Pomegranate" initiative and takeaway services [3][15]