Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-26 03:05Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rise in copper prices on Monday was unexpected. Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting on Friday was considered dovish by the market, leading to a significant decline in the US dollar index and boosting the valuation of the non - ferrous metals sector. The strong performance of the domestic stock market on Monday also had a certain positive impact on the entire commodity sector. However, the downstream still needs time to accept high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,690 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - Inventory Management: For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot position, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2511C82000 when the volatility is relatively stable [2]. - Raw Material Management: For low - level raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot position, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 77,000 yuan/ton [2]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - L利多 Factors: The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies; increased expectations of interest rate cuts led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals; the lower support level has risen [4]. - 利空 Factors: Tariff policies are inconsistent; global demand has decreased due to tariff policies; the adjustment of the US copper tariff policy has led to an extremely high COMEX inventory [5][6]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - Futures Data: The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 79,690 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract rose 1,040 yuan/ton, a 1.32% increase; the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract had no change; the LME Copper 3M contract rose 74.5 dollars/ton, a 0.77% increase; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.18, a 0.24% decrease [6]. - Spot Data: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 Copper, Shanghai Wumaoy, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - Ferrous were 79,395 yuan/ton, 79,360 yuan/ton, 79,300 yuan/ton, and 79,490 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.72%, 0.68%, 0.7%, and 0.68%. The spot premiums of these four decreased to varying degrees [11]. Copper Scrap Spread - The current含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,551.28 yuan/ton, a 43.1% increase; the reasonable含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,495.3 yuan/ton, a 0.46% increase; the price advantage decreased by 113.84%. The current不含税 refined - scrap spread is 6,230 yuan/ton, an 8.35% increase; the reasonable不含税 refined - scrap spread is 6,219.38 yuan/ton, a 0.76% increase; the price advantage decreased by 102.52% [15]. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Warehouse Receipts: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts decreased by 401 tons to 23,747 tons, a 1.66% decrease; the total international copper warehouse receipts decreased by 227 tons to 5,898 tons, a 3.71% decrease [19]. - Inventory: The total LME copper inventory decreased by 375 tons to 155,975 tons, a 0.24% decrease; the total COMEX copper inventory increased by 3,430 tons to 272,500 tons, a 1.27% increase [21][22]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is - 49.05 yuan/ton, a 131.95% decrease; the copper concentrate TC is - 41.3 dollars/ton with no change [23].