Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-26 03:04Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the tin industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The rise in tin prices on Monday was a passive increase, not closely related to its fundamentals. The speech of the Federal Reserve Chairman at the global central bank meeting lifted the valuation of the non - ferrous metal sector, and the over - rise may be corrected within the next trading day. The continuous two - week decline in tin ingot social inventory may provide upward momentum for tin prices. Tin solder enterprises have a good start - up situation and are willing to take delivery when the price is below 270,000 yuan per ton [3]. - There are both利多 and利空 factors in the tin market.利多 factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's复产 being less than expected.利空 factors include the recurrence of tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [4][5]. Key Points by Category Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 269,570 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. - In the tin futures market, the prices of沪锡主力,沪锡连一, and沪锡连三 are 269,570 yuan/ton, 269,890 yuan/ton, and 270,160 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The price of伦锡3M is 33,845 dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 370 dollars and a daily increase rate of 1.11%. The沪伦比 is 7.86, with a daily decrease of 0.11 and a daily decrease rate of 1.38% [2][6]. Risk Management Suggestions - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of沪锡主力期货 contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2511C275000 call options when the volatility is appropriate. - For raw material management, when the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of沪锡主力期货 contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2511P260000 put options when the volatility is appropriate [2]. Spot Market - In the weekly spot market, the prices of various tin - related products have increased. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot is 269,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,900 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.09%. The price of 40% tin concentrate is 257,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,900 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.14% [12]. Import and Processing - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 16,766.65 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 144.42 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.87%. The 40% and 60% tin ore processing fees are 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [16]. Inventory - In the daily inventory data, the total warehouse receipt quantity of tin is 7,032 tons, with a daily decrease of 21 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.3%. The LME tin inventory is 1,785 tons, with a daily increase of 45 tons and a daily increase rate of 2.59% [18].