Xingfa Chem(SH:600141) HTSC·2025-08-26 04:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported H1 2025 revenue of 14.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a net profit of 730 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. The net profit exceeded the forecast of 660 million RMB due to high export prices of phosphate fertilizers and rising prices of glyphosate [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain its integrated and scale advantages as new projects progress steadily, justifying the "Buy" rating [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the pesticide segment revenue decreased by 4% year-on-year to 2.57 billion RMB, while sales volume increased by 4% to 130,000 tons. The average price decreased by 8% to 20,000 RMB/ton. The fertilizer segment revenue also decreased by 4% to 1.92 billion RMB, with sales volume down 9% to 603,000 tons, but the average price increased by 6% to 3,000 RMB/ton due to rising raw material costs [2] - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 16.4% [2] Market Conditions - The price gap between domestic and overseas phosphate fertilizers continues to widen, indicating a favorable market condition for the phosphate industry chain. The price of phosphate rock, yellow phosphorus, and diammonium phosphate has shown slight increases since the end of June [3] - The global demand for phosphate resources is expected to remain tight, supporting the continued prosperity of the phosphate industry chain over the next three years [3] Project Development - The company has made significant progress in new projects, including the production of organic silicon and the upgrade of yellow phosphorus technology. These projects are expected to become new profit growth points [4] - The company plans to invest 835 million RMB in its subsidiary to enhance its competitiveness in the phosphate chemical sector and aims to acquire a 50% stake in a phosphate mine, which is expected to strengthen its phosphate resource security [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 1.63 billion RMB, 1.86 billion RMB, and 2.17 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2%, 14%, and 16%. The target price is set at 29.60 RMB, based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [5]