HUAYOU COBALT(SH:603799) Minsheng Securities·2025-08-26 04:51Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company continues to demonstrate rapid growth in performance, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, highlighting its cyclical growth attributes [1][5]. - The company is benefiting from strong production performance in its nickel projects, with substantial year-on-year increases in nickel product shipments and revenue [2][21]. - The integrated lithium battery materials layout is establishing a solid competitive advantage, positioning the company for sustained growth [60]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of approximately 372 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.11 billion yuan, up 62.26% year-on-year [1][12]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached about 194 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.28% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.48% [1][12]. Production and Sales - Nickel projects are consistently overproducing, with MHP output expected to reach 120,000 tons in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 40% [2][56]. - Nickel product shipments totaled 139,400 tons in H1 2025, marking an 83.91% increase year-on-year [2][21]. - The company has adjusted its sales strategy for cobalt, leading to a 9.89% decline in cobalt product shipments [2][21]. Pricing Trends - The report notes a significant recovery in cobalt prices due to policy disruptions in the Democratic Republic of Congo, while nickel prices have slightly declined but are expected to stabilize [3][22]. - Key product prices in Q2 2025 included copper at 77,700 yuan/ton, cobalt at 15.80 USD/pound, and nickel at 15,348 USD/ton, with varying changes from the previous quarter [3][24]. Project Development - The company is advancing its project construction, including new nickel and lithium projects in Indonesia and Zimbabwe, which are expected to enhance resource reserves and production capacity [4][70]. - The Pomalaa and Sorowako wet process projects are under development, aiming to double the company's nickel production capacity [4][66]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 60.48 billion yuan, 70.96 billion yuan, and 83.36 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14X, 12X, and 10X [5][6].