Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7.36 [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 7.09 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4%, which is below the company's guidance for double-digit growth in net profit for the year [1][2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing urban operations while continuing to exit low-quality projects, which has contributed to the slowdown in revenue growth [1][3]. - The interim basic dividend proposed is HKD 0.09, with a special dividend of HKD 0.01, resulting in a total payout ratio of 40% [4]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's core property management revenue grew by 8% year-on-year, despite a net increase of only 5 million square meters in managed area compared to the end of 2024 [2]. - The gross margin improved by 0.2 percentage points to 17.0%, driven by cost-saving measures [2]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is expected to show positive growth, but may not reach double digits [2]. Urban Operations and Market Position - The company has seen a 5% year-on-year decline in new external contract value, totaling HKD 9.8 billion, but has improved project quality with a 17% increase in the average contract value for new projects [3]. - The urban operations segment has shown significant growth, with a 60% increase in new external contract value, reaching HKD 6.2 billion [3]. - The company continues to leverage its differentiated advantages in the Hong Kong and Macau regions, maintaining the largest market share in Hong Kong's property management sector [3]. Dividend Policy - The company aims to steadily increase its dividend payout ratio, with the basic dividend rate increasing by 1 percentage point year-on-year to 36% [4]. - The total dividend payout for the first half of 2025 is set at 40%, celebrating the company's tenth anniversary [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards to RMB 0.48, RMB 0.52, and RMB 0.57, reflecting a decrease of 6%, 10%, and 13% respectively [5]. - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 7.36 based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14 times for 2025, down from a previous target of HKD 7.74 [5].
中海物业（02669）：营收增速有所放缓，发力城市运营赛道