HAIDILAO(HK:06862) HTSC·2025-08-26 06:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20.7 billion RMB for 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, and a net profit of 1.76 billion RMB, down 13.7% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on innovation in dining experiences and menu offerings, with a cautious approach to expanding its main brand while nurturing new brands like "Red Pomegranate" and "Woodpecker" [1] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 95% for 1H25, consistent with the previous year [1] - The company is expected to see improvements in same-store sales in 2H25 as customer experience enhancements take effect [2] Revenue and Profitability - The restaurant operating revenue for 1H25 was 18.58 billion RMB, a decline of 9.0% year-on-year, while the takeaway business saw a significant increase of 59.6% to 928 million RMB [2] - The overall average table turnover rate decreased to 3.8 times per day, down 0.4 times year-on-year, indicating pressure on sales due to high base effects [2] - The gross profit margin for 1H25 was 60.2%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased costs of raw materials and consumables [3] - The net profit margin for 1H25 was 8.5%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the impact of operational adjustments on profitability [3] Brand Expansion and New Initiatives - As of the end of 1H25, the company operated 1,363 Haidilao restaurants, with a net addition of 28 franchise stores during the period [4] - The "Red Pomegranate" initiative is progressing steadily, with 14 other restaurant brands operating a total of 126 locations, contributing to a revenue increase of 227% year-on-year [4] - The company plans to focus on optimizing existing brand models and supporting potential projects in 2H25 [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 down by 17.7%, 13.8%, and 10.5% to 4.314 billion RMB, 4.767 billion RMB, and 5.281 billion RMB, respectively [5] - The target price has been adjusted to 20.92 HKD, based on a 25x PE ratio for 2025 [5][8]