迎驾贡酒（603198）：Q2环比加速调整，主动释放压力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company has proactively adjusted its strategy since Q3 2024, increasing efforts to clear inventory in Q2 2025, which has led to a significant reduction in burdens. The core products, particularly the "Dongcang" series, are expected to see demand recovery in H2 2025 due to corrections in the "ban on alcohol" policy [1][6]. - The company reported a revenue of 3.16 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.13 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 16.9% and 18.0%, respectively. The Q2 2025 figures showed a more pronounced decline of 24.1% in revenue and 35.2% in net profit compared to the previous year [1][6]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 2.78 yuan, 3.07 yuan, and 3.35 yuan, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to a PE ratio of 16.9 for 2025 [1][6]. Financial Data Summary - For 2023, the total revenue is projected at 6.72 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22%. The revenue is expected to decline by 10% in 2025, followed by a recovery of 7% and 6% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [2][15]. - The operating profit for 2023 is estimated at 3.01 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 32%. However, a decline of 15% is anticipated in 2025, followed by growth rates of 10% and 9% in the subsequent years [2][15]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.288 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected decline to 2.226 billion yuan in 2025, before recovering to 2.456 billion yuan and 2.680 billion yuan in 2026 and 2027, respectively [2][15]. Key Financial Ratios - The report indicates a gross margin of 73.6% for H1 2025, which is consistent with the previous year, while the net margin slightly decreased to 35.9% [1][6]. - The return on equity (ROE) for the company is reported at 23.9% [3][16]. - The debt-to-asset ratio stands at 22.1%, indicating a relatively low level of leverage [3][16].