Semir(SZ:002563) Yin He Zheng Quan·2025-08-26 07:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for Semir Apparel (stock code: 002563.SZ) [1] Core Views - The company's short-term profits are under pressure, but channel optimization is ongoing, with a focus on long-term growth strategies [5] - The children's clothing segment remains robust, while the casual wear segment faces challenges due to strategic adjustments in online discounts [5] - The company is expanding its overseas business, with significant growth in international revenue [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, Semir Apparel achieved revenue of 6.149 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.26%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 325 million yuan, a decline of 41.17% [5] - The second quarter saw revenue of 3.070 billion yuan, up 9.04% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 46.25% [5] - The company reported a mid-term dividend of 0.15 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 124.32% [5] Business Segment Analysis - The children's clothing business generated revenue of 4.313 billion yuan, a 5.97% increase, accounting for 70.15% of total revenue [5] - Casual wear revenue was 1.723 billion yuan, down 4.98% due to adjustments in online discount strategies [5] - Direct sales, franchise, and online channels generated revenues of 948 million yuan, 2.334 billion yuan, and 2.692 billion yuan respectively, with direct sales growing by 34.78% [5] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 46.79%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Selling expenses increased by 17.67% due to new store openings and online marketing costs, impacting the net profit margin, which fell to 5.19% [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to recover profits in the long term as channel structure optimization and overseas business development continue [5] - EPS estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 0.37, 0.41, and 0.46 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 13, and 12 times [5][6]