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昊华能源(601101):业绩符合预期,业务销量环比增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with a revenue of 4.395 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 448 million yuan, down 47.8% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company experienced a significant decline in both revenue and net profit compared to the previous quarter, with revenue of 1.859 billion yuan, down 20.0% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 172 million yuan, down 57.8% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The coal sales volume increased both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, but the significant drop in price led to a decline in gross profit margin [2] - The methanol sales volume decreased in Q2 2025, but the gross profit margin improved compared to the previous quarter [3] - The railway dedicated line transportation volume saw a substantial increase in Q2 2025, with stable gross profit margins [4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 780 million, 910 million, and 1.051 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.54, 0.63, and 0.73 yuan per share [5][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, coal production and sales reached 9.757 million and 9.713 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 2.7% and 2.2% [2] - The average selling price of coal was 362.0 yuan per ton, down 17.0% year-on-year, while the cost was 225.5 yuan per ton, up 15.4% year-on-year, resulting in a coal business gross profit margin of 37.7%, down 17.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - For Q2 2025, coal production was 4.874 million tons, with a sales volume of 4.969 million tons, showing quarter-on-quarter increases of 4.6% and 7.5%, respectively [2] - The average selling price of coal in Q2 2025 was 334.9 yuan per ton, down 22.5% quarter-on-quarter, while the cost was 223.4 yuan per ton, up 11.6% quarter-on-quarter, leading to a gross profit margin of 33.3%, down 20.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Business Segments - The methanol segment reported a production volume of 128,000 tons in Q2 2025, with a sales volume of 113,000 tons, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.4% [3] - The average selling price of methanol was 1,814.5 yuan per ton in Q2 2025, down 5.5% quarter-on-quarter, while the cost was 1,607.8 yuan per ton, down 10.6% quarter-on-quarter, resulting in a gross profit margin of 11.4%, up 5.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] - The railway dedicated line transportation volume in H1 2025 was 4.052 million tons, up 23.7% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 71.1%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] - In Q2 2025, the railway dedicated line transportation volume was 2.154 million tons, up 41.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a stable gross profit margin of 71.1% [4]