TFC(SZ:300394) Minsheng Securities·2025-08-26 08:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 129.35 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.456 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 57.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 899 million CNY, up 37.5% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.511 billion CNY, marking an 83.3% year-on-year increase and a 60.0% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - The growth in performance is driven by stable demand in the telecom sector and a significant increase in demand for AI-driven optical devices [2]. Financial Performance - The company's optical passive devices generated a revenue of 863 million CNY in the first half of 2025, a 23.8% increase year-on-year, while the optical active devices saw a revenue of 1.566 billion CNY, reflecting a 91.0% year-on-year growth [2]. - The gross margin for optical passive devices was 63.57%, down 5.37 percentage points year-on-year, and for optical active devices, it was 43.36%, down 3.48 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Industry Outlook - Major overseas companies like Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon have reported a combined capital expenditure (CAPEX) of approximately 95 billion USD in Q2 2025, which is a 67% year-on-year increase [3]. - The optimistic outlook for future CAPEX from these companies suggests sustained high demand in the optical communication sector [3]. Research and Development - The company has increased its R&D investment, with R&D expense ratios of 7.39%, 7.14%, and 5.11% for 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively [4]. - Key development areas include multi-channel high-power laser devices and 800G optical transceiver modules based on silicon photonics technology [4]. Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 2.205 billion CNY, 2.927 billion CNY, and 3.726 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding PE multiples of 46x, 34x, and 27x [4].