雪峰科技（603227）：疆内民爆能化引领者宏大入主产业共振在即

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6][7]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the "civil explosives + energy chemicals" sector in Xinjiang, with a strong market presence and the backing of Guangdong Hongda as the new controlling shareholder, which is expected to enhance industrial synergy [6][19]. - The integration of civil explosive capacity and mining services is ongoing, with significant growth potential in the western region and opportunities for international expansion [6][19]. - The scarcity of ammonium nitrate in Xinjiang and the potential convergence of domestic and international urea price differentials are highlighted as key factors for future growth [6][19]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 65.82 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.45 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of -19% for 2025, followed by 51% and 26% in subsequent years [2][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.51 yuan in 2025, increasing to 0.97 yuan by 2027 [2][7]. - The company’s projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2026 is approximately 13 times, which is below the average PE of comparable companies at 15 times [7]. Business Segments - The civil explosives segment is expected to see significant growth due to the injection of production capacity from Guangdong Hongda, with external sales projected to reach 70,000 tons in 2025 [8][19]. - The chemical products segment, particularly ammonium nitrate, is anticipated to benefit from high demand in Xinjiang, with a licensed capacity of 810,000 tons [22][24]. - The LNG segment is also expected to improve, with production capacity utilization gradually increasing [22][24]. Market Dynamics - The civil explosives industry is characterized by high barriers to entry and regional market dynamics, with a focus on safety and regulatory compliance [45][50]. - The report notes that the industry is undergoing consolidation, with a target of reducing the number of production enterprises to fewer than 50 by 2025, enhancing the competitive landscape [51][54]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing external acquisitions to enhance its market position, having recently acquired stakes in Southern Yongsheng and Shengshi Putian [6][19]. - The strategic focus on integrating civil explosives and chemical production is expected to create a robust circular economy model, leveraging local resources effectively [19][22].