PDH(SH:600048) Minsheng Securities·2025-08-26 09:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit due to a decrease in project turnover, but cost reduction measures helped improve gross margin slightly [1]. - Despite a year-on-year decrease in sales, the company remains the industry leader in sales amount, with a significant increase in cash flow [2]. - The company is actively working on inventory reduction and optimizing inventory structure through various sales strategies [3]. - Financing channels have been expanded, and the debt structure has improved, leading to a reduction in financing costs [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1168.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.08% year-on-year, and a net profit of 27.11 billion yuan, down 63.47% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 14.6%, slightly higher than the full-year level of 2024, attributed to organizational restructuring and cost reduction efforts [1]. Sales Performance - The company achieved a signed area of 7.1354 million square meters with a signed average price of 20,300 yuan per square meter, resulting in a sales amount of 145.117 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.25% [2]. - The sales collection reached 144.8 billion yuan, with a collection rate of 100%, an increase of 15 percentage points [2]. Inventory Management - The company implemented strategies such as "old projects with new works" and "sales-driven production" to reduce inventory, achieving sales of 394 million square meters from projects acquired before 2021, amounting to 51.4 billion yuan [3]. - New projects in key cities have improved sales quality, with sales from projects acquired after 2022 amounting to 93.7 billion yuan, a 5% increase compared to the entire year of 2023 [3]. Financing and Debt Structure - The company successfully issued a cash-type convertible bond of 8.5 billion yuan and other debt instruments, with a significant reduction in financing costs [4]. - As of the first half of 2025, the proportion of interest-bearing liabilities maturing in more than three years increased to 42.8%, while those maturing within one year decreased to 21.4% [4]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3193.06 billion yuan, 3279.34 billion yuan, and 3379.58 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.5%, 2.7%, and 3.1% respectively [4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 56.02 billion yuan, 64.12 billion yuan, and 75.51 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12.0%, 14.5%, and 17.8% respectively [4].