开润股份（300577）：印尼产能优势+双业务协同，增速有望领跑板块

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company, Kairun Co., is a bag and apparel manufacturer deeply rooted in Indonesia, benefiting from scarce production capacity and dual business synergy, which is expected to lead to superior growth rates in the sector [1] - The revenue growth of the OEM business is anticipated to exceed expectations due to the company's ability to increase its share among major clients like Nike and Decathlon, despite market concerns about their slowing growth [2] - The net profit margin for apparel OEM is expected to improve beyond expectations as the company has moved past its adjustment phase, with a projected net margin of 3.3% in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The OEM business revenue is projected to maintain double-digit growth, driven by the company's production capacity in Indonesia and an expanded product range [2] - The company’s overseas production capacity, primarily in Indonesia, exceeds 70%, providing a competitive edge over peers focused on Vietnam [2] Profitability Improvement - The apparel OEM has seen a significant recovery, with profit margins expected to improve annually as production capacity utilization increases [3] - The company has optimized its client structure and production capacity since investing in Shanghai Jiale in 2020, leading to a recovery from losses [3] Growth Drivers - Increased procurement share from major clients in bags and the extension into apparel categories are expected to drive revenue growth beyond expectations [4] - Improved apparel production capacity utilization and order structure are anticipated to enhance profit margins [4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue is expected to reach 5.16 billion, 5.92 billion, and 6.78 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.8%, 14.6%, and 14.5% [4] - The net profit for the same years is forecasted at 372.6 million, 459.3 million, and 557.2 million yuan, with growth rates of -2.2%, 23.3%, and 21.3% [4] Valuation Analysis - The company is expected to maintain double-digit revenue growth while improving net profit margins, leading to a compound annual growth rate of over 20% in operating net profit [5] - A target price of 31.05 yuan per share is set, corresponding to a market capitalization of approximately 75 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 38% from the current price [5]