PDH(SH:600048) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-26 09:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for Poly Developments is maintained as "Buy" [1][7][18] Core Views - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue and profit, with a significant drop in net profit by 63.5% year-on-year for the first half of 2025. However, it maintains the top sales ranking in the industry and continues to optimize its land reserve structure and debt profile [7][8][9] - The company is expected to recover its performance as low-cost projects are completed, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 5.68 billion, 6.56 billion, and 7.51 billion yuan respectively [7][11] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1168.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.71 billion yuan, down 63.5% [8] - The gross margin and net margin were 14.6% and 5.6%, respectively, reflecting a decline of 1.4 percentage points and 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company achieved a contract signing amount of 1451.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.3% year-on-year, with a signing area of 7.135 million square meters and an average signing price of 20,300 yuan per square meter [9] Debt and Financing - As of the first half of 2025, the company had interest-bearing debt of 348.8 billion yuan, with an average cost of new interest-bearing debt reduced by 21 basis points to 2.71% [10] - The asset-liability ratio stood at 73.5%, with a net debt ratio of 59.6%, showing improvements compared to the beginning of the year [10] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.47 yuan, 0.55 yuan, and 0.63 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.5, 15.1, and 13.2 times [7][11]