通威股份（600438）：光伏业务整体承压，有望受益于反内卷的推进

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The company's overall performance is under pressure due to the decline in profitability in the photovoltaic business, but it is expected to benefit from the promotion of anti-involution policies [7][8] - The company reported a revenue of 40.509 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.51%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of -4.955 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.35% [4] - The photovoltaic business revenue decreased by approximately 8% to 26.68 billion yuan, with a gross margin of -5.3%, a decline of 11.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The multi-crystalline silicon business is expected to benefit from the anti-involution policies, despite a 29.5% decrease in sales volume to 161,300 tons [7] - The battery component business remains under pressure, with sales of 49.89 GW and a net profit of -1.743 billion yuan, indicating an expanded loss [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to have revenues of 90.003 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.2% [6] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at -6.971 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year improvement expected in 2026 and 2027 [6] - The gross margin is expected to recover gradually, reaching 10.3% by 2027 [6] Business Segments - The agricultural and animal husbandry business generated revenue of 13.32 billion yuan, a decrease of about 8%, but maintained a stable gross margin of approximately 9.5% [7] - The company achieved a sales volume of 24.52 GW for components, a year-on-year increase of 31.3% [7] Market Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is facing intense competition, but the supply-demand situation is expected to improve with the implementation of anti-involution policies, potentially leading to a recovery in profitability [8]