云铝股份（000807）：Q2业绩大幅增长，分红超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported significant growth in Q2 2025, with revenue reaching 29.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, and a net profit of 2.77 billion yuan, up 9.9% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of 14.67 billion yuan, a 10.4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.79 billion yuan, which grew by 32.3% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.11 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 40.1%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 29.08 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.77 billion yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 2.76 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 18.0%, 9.9%, and 15.4% respectively year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue was 14.67 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.79 billion yuan, marking a 32.3% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The average aluminum price in H1 2025 was 20,321 yuan per ton, up 2.7% year-on-year, while the average alumina price was 3,518 yuan per ton, down 0.3% year-on-year [2]. Production Capacity and Resource Expansion - The company currently has an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 3.08 million tons and has made significant progress in resource acquisition, including successful bids for exploration rights for bauxite mines [3][2]. - The production of aluminum products reached 1.613 million tons in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, with stable operations across all production lines [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a significant release of performance as it optimizes its balance sheet and capital structure. The use of clean energy in production exceeds 80%, enhancing the value of green aluminum under the dual carbon goals [3][4]. - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 6.72 billion yuan, 8.00 billion yuan, and 8.42 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10, 8, and 8 times [4][5].