中矿资源（002738）：二季度锂价和Tsumeb冶炼厂拖累业绩，中长期向好态势不改

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - The company's performance in the second quarter was significantly impacted by declining lithium prices and ongoing losses at the Tsumeb smelter, but the long-term outlook remains positive [1][4] - The lithium and cesium rubidium segments together account for 62% of the company's revenue, indicating their importance to the overall business [3] - The company is expected to recover in the medium to long term, with anticipated improvements in lithium prices and operational efficiencies at the Tsumeb smelter [4][5] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.267 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.89%, with Q2 revenue of 1.730 billion yuan, up 33.6% year-on-year and 12.62% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was 89 million yuan, down 81.16% year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in lithium prices and a loss of 205 million yuan from the Tsumeb smelter [1] Production and Sales - The company's lithium salt production capacity is set to increase to 71,000 tons, with lithium concentrate capacity at 4.18 million tons [2] - In the first half of 2025, the company sold 17,869 tons of lithium salt, a 6.37% increase year-on-year, and directly sold 34,834 tons of lithium spodumene concentrate [2] Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for the company in the first half of 2025 was 17.96%, a decrease of 23.66 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to falling lithium prices and losses from the Tsumeb smelter [4] - The gross margin for the lithium segment was 10.89%, down 24.66 percentage points year-on-year, with lithium carbonate prices dropping to a low of 59,100 yuan [4] Future Outlook - The company maintains a multi-metal platform development strategy, with expectations for net profits of 375 million yuan, 779 million yuan, and 1.027 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] - The report suggests a long-term perspective on the company, with a maintained "Accumulate" rating due to potential recovery in the lithium segment and overall market conditions [5]