Shede Spirits (SH:600702) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-26 12:55Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company's performance showed improvement in Q2 2025, with expectations for continued enhancement in the second half of the year. The proactive inventory reduction strategy has begun to yield positive results, leading to a forecasted increase in net profit for 2025-2027 [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 440 million yuan, down 25.0% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.13 billion yuan, a decline of 3.4% year-on-year, while net profit was 97 million yuan, an increase of 139.5% year-on-year [6] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 690 million yuan, 840 million yuan, and 1.09 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 100.3%, 21.0%, and 29.7% respectively [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 32.2, 26.6, and 20.5 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] Revenue Breakdown - In Q2 2025, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 739 million yuan, down 15.7% year-on-year, while low-end liquor revenue was 237 million yuan, up 62.3% year-on-year. The company saw significant growth in its low-end product line, particularly the T68 brand [7] - Revenue from provincial sales was 289 million yuan, down 21.2% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 686 million yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year [7] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin in Q2 2025 was stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.33 percentage points. The company has focused on cost control, leading to a decrease in expense ratios and an overall net profit margin increase of 5.2 percentage points year-on-year [9]