Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-26 13:16Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term fundamentals of the log market are in a weak and volatile state. The supply side has certain support, but the increase in arrivals in August may not be significant. The demand is currently weak but has limited downward space, and is expected to improve gradually as the peak season approaches. The inventory is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The prices of logs and wood products are relatively stable, and the import profit is declining. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider appropriate hedging at high prices according to one's own spot situation [6][9][11][15][17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Log Overview - Supply Side: The number of arriving ships remained the same at 8 from August 15th to 22nd, 2025, and the arrival volume increased by 3.30 million cubic meters to 28.4 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs decreased by 22.35 million cubic meters, and the import volume of radiata pine decreased by 20.96 million cubic meters. Although the arrivals are expected to increase next week, the arrival volume in August may not rise significantly due to factors such as less departure from New Zealand and rising outer - market quotes [6][7]. - Demand and Inventory Side: The weekly shipment volume increased slightly, with a national increase of 0.8 million cubic meters. The apparent demand decreased by 1.7 million cubic meters. The inventory in some regions and tree species showed a trend of destocking. Although the current demand is weak, it is expected to improve as the peak season approaches, and the inventory is expected to fluctuate and adjust [8][9]. - Price and Spread: The outer - market quotes of radiata pine are expected to rise, and the spot prices are relatively stable. The spread between spot prices is stable, and the basis can be considered at the level of 5.9m medium - grade A radiata pine. The futures prices are in a volatile state [10][11][13]. - Cost and Profit: The import cost of radiata pine and spruce increased slightly, and the import profit decreased. The profit of finished products is in a stable and weak state [14][15]. - Strategy Recommendation: The spot market is stable, and the supply side is under some pressure. The fundamentals are in a volatile state. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider appropriate hedging at high prices according to one's own spot situation [16][17]. Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report provides the weekly balance sheet of logs from June 6th, 2025, to August 22nd, 2025, including arrival numbers, arrival volumes, daily average shipment volumes, apparent demand, inventory by region and tree species, and supply - demand differences [18][19][20]. Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply Side: It includes aspects such as New Zealand's log shipment volume, log imports, and imports by tree species, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [22][25][26]. - Demand Side: It involves the daily average shipment volume of logs and the real - estate market, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [34][35][37]. - Downstream Analysis: It includes the price and profit analysis of wood squares and the analysis of downstream substitutes such as aluminum alloys, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [42][43][49]. - Inventory Side: It includes the inventory summary, inventory by tree species, and inventory by region, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [58][59][61]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - Log Import Cost and Profit: The import cost of radiata pine and spruce increased slightly, and the import profit decreased [72][73][77]. - Log Delivery Profit: Specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [78]. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - Log Outer - Market Quotes: The outer - market quotes of radiata pine are expected to rise, and the price of New Zealand radiata pine in August is in the range of 114 - 118 US dollars per cubic meter, an increase of 1 - 2 US dollars compared to July [82][83][11]. - Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices: The report provides the price seasonality charts of radiata pine and spruce from 2024 to 2025, but specific analysis is not fully presented in the provided content [86][87][88]. - Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads: Specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [89][94]. - Basis between Radiata Pine and LG: Specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [95]. - Seasonal Chart and Inter - Month Spread of LG Main Contracts: The report provides the seasonal chart of the LG main contract from 2024 to 2025, but specific analysis is not fully presented in the provided content [97][98][100].