Yunnan Aluminium (SZ:000807) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-26 15:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio. The company achieved a revenue of 29.08 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing an 18.0% year-on-year growth, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.77 billion yuan, up 9.9% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, the net profit reached 1.79 billion yuan, showing a 32.3% year-on-year increase and an 84.1% quarter-on-quarter increase [6] - The company plans to implement a mid-term dividend in 2025, with a payout ratio of approximately 40.10%. The proposed cash dividend is 3.20 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to about 1.11 billion yuan, which is an increase of 7.87 percentage points compared to 2024 [6] - The company is advancing its project construction and resource expansion, enhancing its integrated green aluminum supply chain. New production capacity for electrolytic aluminum has been launched, and the company has successfully acquired bauxite mining rights, contributing to increased sales volume [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 59.018 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 6.676 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 51.3% year-on-year [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 14.1% in H1 2025 to 16.7% in 2025E, with a return on equity (ROE) of 19.4% [5] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.676 billion yuan, 7.747 billion yuan, and 8.526 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10, 8, and 8 [6][5]