PDH(SH:600048) CMS·2025-08-27 03:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 2.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 63.5%, indicating potential pressure on future revenue growth and a bottoming out of gross profit margins [1][2]. - Despite the challenges, the company remains the industry leader in sales, with an increased proportion of sales from new projects and enhanced land acquisition efforts [1][9]. - The company is actively revitalizing its existing resources through various measures, including land swaps and financial restructuring, which have shown some progress [1][10]. - Financing costs are decreasing, with a higher proportion of direct financing, and the successful issuance of the first cash-based convertible bond in China [1][10]. - The company's asset management is steadily developing, with a continuous expansion of its property service scale [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 116.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%, and a gross profit margin of 14.6%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous year [2][4]. - The company plans to start construction on 8 million square meters and complete 25.4 million square meters in 2025, which is a significant reduction from the previous year's actual completion [3][4]. - The company's total liabilities as of the first half of 2025 were 333.6 billion yuan, with a revenue guarantee multiple of 1.07 for the full year of 2024 [3][4]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.36 yuan, 0.38 yuan, and 0.53 yuan, respectively [1][11]. - The company is expected to experience a decline in revenue and profit in the coming years, with a forecasted total revenue of 280.5 billion yuan in 2025, down 10% from the previous year [4][17]. Market Position - The company maintains its position as the top seller in the industry, with a sales area of 7.14 million square meters in the first half of 2025, despite a year-on-year decline of 25.2% [9][10]. - The proportion of sales from new projects has increased to 65%, reflecting a strategic shift towards newer developments [9][10].