百润股份（002568）：老品调整去库，新品上市催化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.49 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 8.6% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 390 million yuan, down 3.3% [1] - In Q2 2025, the total revenue was 750 million yuan, reflecting a 9.0% decline, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 200 million yuan, a decrease of 10.9% [1] - The report highlights that adjustments in old products and the launch of new products are expected to catalyze future growth [1] Financial Summary - The company’s projected total revenue for 2025 is 3.32 billion yuan, with an expected growth rate of 8.9% [3] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 790 million yuan, with a growth rate of 9.8% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.75 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 38 [3] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 30.23 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 20.82 billion yuan [4] Business Performance - The report indicates that the revenue from alcoholic beverages, food flavoring, and other businesses for the first half of 2025 was 1.3 billion yuan, 170 million yuan, and 20 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -9.4%, -3.9%, and +6.3% [7] - The decline in revenue is attributed to weak external demand and inventory adjustments in the ready-to-drink segment, while the whiskey segment is beginning to contribute revenue [7] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 71.0%, a slight decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by changes in product mix and reduced scale effects [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests closely monitoring the sales of new products and inventory changes, maintaining the "Recommendation" rating [7] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 30 yuan, with the current price at 28.81 yuan [3][7]