海底捞（06862）：短期业绩承压，“红石榴计划”效果逐渐显现

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Haidilao International Holding [2][14] Core Insights - Haidilao's short-term performance is under pressure, with the "Red Pomegranate Plan" gradually showing effects [1][4] - Revenue for 1H25 was RMB 20.7 billion, a decrease of 3.7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.76 billion, down 13.7% year-on-year [3][13] - The company plans to pay an interim dividend of HKD 0.338 per share, with a dividend payout ratio of 95% [3][14] Revenue Breakdown - Main brand revenue decreased by 9.0% to RMB 18.58 billion, with contributions from various city tiers: 17.0% from tier-one, 37.3% from tier-two, 41.8% from tier-three and below, and 3.9% from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [4][5] - Other restaurant revenue increased by 227.0% to RMB 0.6 billion, driven by the introduction of new dining brands under the "Red Pomegranate Plan" [4] - Takeout revenue grew by 59.6% to RMB 0.93 billion, attributed to the rapid growth of the "one-person meal" fast food segment [4] - Sales of condiments and ingredients rose by 55.0% to RMB 0.46 billion, while franchise revenue surged by 4684.0% to RMB 0.09 billion [4] Operational Metrics - As of 1H25, Haidilao operated 1,363 restaurants, including 1,322 self-operated and 41 franchised [5] - The average customer spending was RMB 97.9, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, while the overall table turnover rate decreased by 9.5% to 3.8 times per day [5][6] - Same-store sales declined by 9.9% in 1H25, with tier-one and tier-two cities experiencing declines of 9.4% and 13.3%, respectively [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 44.45 billion, RMB 47.06 billion, and RMB 49.89 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 4.0%, 5.9%, and 6.0% respectively [8][14] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 4.63 billion, RMB 4.95 billion, and RMB 5.33 billion for the same period, with net profit margins of 10.4%, 10.5%, and 10.7% [8][14] - The valuation has been adjusted from 23x PE to 20x PE for 2025, leading to a target price of HKD 18.22 per share [8][14]