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现代牧业(01117):期待肉奶周期共振,利润弹性显现
CH MODERN DCH MODERN D(HK:01117) HTSC·2025-08-27 05:29

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9] Core Views - The report anticipates a resonance between the meat and dairy cycles, which is expected to reveal profit elasticity for the company [1] - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and increased net losses in the first half of 2025, but there are signs of potential recovery in the dairy and beef markets [1][4] Revenue and Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue was 6.07 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, with a net loss of 980 million RMB compared to a net loss of 210 million RMB in the same period last year [1] - Raw milk revenue decreased by 0.8% year-on-year to 5.07 billion RMB, with sales volume increasing by 10.3% but average price per kilogram dropping by 10.1% to 3.29 RMB/kg [2] - The company has improved its core herd ratio and increased the annual average yield per lactating cow to 13.2 tons per head, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2] Profitability and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 increased by 0.3 percentage points to 26.4%, while the cash EBITDA was 1.48 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% [3] - The company expects a reduction in biological asset impairment losses in the second half of 2025, which could improve profitability [3] Future Outlook and Valuation - The report maintains earnings forecasts, projecting EPS of -0.17, 0.08, and 0.14 RMB for 2025 to 2027, respectively [4] - The target price is set at 1.58 HKD, based on a 18x PE ratio for 2026, indicating potential upside from the current market price [4][5]