HLGF(SH:600346) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-27 07:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hengli Petrochemical is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The mid-year performance of Hengli Petrochemical met expectations, and the mid-term dividend has been increased to enhance shareholder returns [5] - The company reported a revenue of 1,038.87 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 30.50 billion yuan, down 24.08% year-on-year [5] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a net profit of 9.99 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 46.81% year-on-year and 51.28% quarter-on-quarter due to maintenance and falling oil prices [5] - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability driven by improved refining industry conditions and effective cost control [6] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, sales volumes for refining products, PTA, and new materials were 939.60 million tons, 760.37 million tons, and 287.42 million tons, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 9.89%, 3.52%, and 10.59% [6] - The average selling prices for refining products, PTA, and new materials were 5,077.67 yuan/ton, 4,249.42 yuan/ton, and 6,955.37 yuan/ton, reflecting year-on-year declines of 5.61%, 19.41%, and 14.17% [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.63 billion yuan for the mid-term, with a payout of 0.08 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 18.46% [6] Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 76.38 billion yuan, 99.71 billion yuan, and 123.24 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.09 yuan, 1.42 yuan, and 1.75 yuan [5] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 16.2, 12.4, and 10.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5] - The refining industry is expected to improve due to capacity adjustments and restructuring, which may enhance the supply-demand balance [7]