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古茗(01364):营收利润双高增,拓品类强化成长动能
GUMINGGUMING(HK:01364) HTSC·2025-08-27 07:03

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 34.57 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company reported strong growth in both revenue and profit, with a 1H25 GMV of RMB 141 billion, up 34.4% year-on-year, and revenue of RMB 56.63 billion, up 41.2% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached RMB 16.25 billion, a significant increase of 121.5% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is actively expanding its product categories, including coffee and breakfast, while also increasing its store count, which reached 11,179 by the end of 1H25. This expansion strategy is expected to sustain growth in the medium to long term [1][3]. - The company has a strong focus on enhancing operational efficiency and brand positioning, which supports high repurchase rates. Even with potential reductions in delivery subsidies, the company is expected to demonstrate resilience in same-store sales [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - In 1H25, the company's revenue from sales of goods and equipment, franchise management services, and direct store sales were RMB 44.96 billion, RMB 11.59 billion, and RMB 0.78 billion, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 41.8%, 39.2%, and 14.0% [3]. - The adjusted core profit margin for 1H25 was 20.1%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0 percentage points, indicating improved profitability [4]. Expansion and Market Strategy - The company has opened 1,570 new stores in 1H25 while closing 305, with a notable increase in the proportion of stores located in lower-tier cities and rural areas [3]. - The introduction of coffee machines in over 8,000 stores and the launch of 16 new coffee products are expected to enhance same-store sales and overall revenue [2][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 21.63 billion, RMB 25.17 billion, and RMB 30.58 billion, respectively, with corresponding adjusted EPS of RMB 0.91, RMB 1.06, and RMB 1.29 [5][11]. - The report suggests a valuation of 30 times the expected PE for 2026, leading to a target price adjustment to HKD 34.57 [5][11].