成都银行（601838）：预期的信贷高景气，超预期的业绩表现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chengdu Bank [1] Core Views - Chengdu Bank's mid-year performance exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 12.27 billion yuan, up 5.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.62 billion yuan, up 7.3% year-on-year [4][6] - The bank's credit quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio stable at 0.66% and a provision coverage ratio slightly decreasing to 453% [4][6] - The bank is benefiting from a high credit demand environment, with significant contributions from corporate loans, which accounted for over 90% of the total credit increase in the first half of 2025 [6][11] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Chengdu Bank's total revenue is projected to grow from 21.70 billion yuan in 2023 to 29.05 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.46% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 11.67 billion yuan in 2023 to 17.12 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of about 11.52% [5] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to remain high, with a projected ROE of 16.02% in 2025 [5] Performance Drivers - The increase in interest income is driven by accelerated loan disbursement and improved net interest margins, with net interest income growing by 7.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [6][8] - The bank's cost of liabilities has improved, contributing to a stabilization of net interest margins, which decreased by only 4 basis points to 1.62% in the first half of 2025 [9][12] - Corporate loans are the main growth driver, with a loan growth rate of 18.0% in the second quarter of 2025, and corporate lending contributing significantly to the overall credit increase [6][10] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remains low at 0.66%, with both corporate and retail non-performing loans below 1% [6][9] - The bank's asset quality indicators are strong, with a projected annualized non-performing loan generation rate of 0.16% for the first half of 2025 [9][11]