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中策橡胶(603049):25Q2销量同比增长,海外产能持续扩张

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 21.9 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 20.5% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.32 billion yuan, down 8.6% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 11.2 billion yuan, a 19% year-on-year increase and a 5.4% quarter-on-quarter increase, with a gross margin of 19.7% and a net profit of 1.17 billion yuan, up 4.9% year-on-year and 1.7% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company is the largest tire manufacturer in China, with a continuous growth in sales, particularly in Q2 2025, where tire product sales increased by 10.36% year-on-year [2]. - The company is expanding its global footprint, with ongoing capacity construction in Indonesia and Thailand, and has established a new subsidiary in Mexico [3]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 4.29 billion yuan in 2025, 4.83 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.37 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9, 8.73, and 7.84 [4][10]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 39.26 billion yuan in 2024 to 49.51 billion yuan in 2027, with annual growth rates of 10.55%, 11.35%, 8.01%, 8.40%, and 7.71% respectively [10]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 19.5% in 2024 to 20.4% in 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 9.6% to 10.9% over the same period [10].