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银轮股份(002126):系列点评八:2025H1业绩符合预期,具身智能加速布局

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's H1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 7.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, and a net profit of 440 million yuan, up 9.5% year-on-year [1][2]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the release of orders in the new energy vehicle thermal management and digital energy sectors [2]. - The company has successfully upgraded its overseas strategy, achieving a 50.5% year-on-year increase in North American business revenue and turning profitable [3]. - The digital energy business is expected to see significant growth, with new annual orders of 950 million yuan in 2024 and 640 million yuan in H1 2025 [3]. - The embodied intelligence business is accelerating, with a diverse product lineup and strategic collaborations with universities [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.8% [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 18.8%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product price declines and tariff impacts [2]. - The company’s expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 1.8%, 4.9%, 3.7%, and 0.0%, respectively, showing a continuous optimization of the expense structure [2]. Strategic Developments - The company has implemented a global business model, enhancing its supply chain in North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia, which has improved its ability to respond to uncertainties [3]. - The digital energy division, established in 2021, focuses on multiple systems and modules in data centers, energy storage, and low-altitude vehicles, with significant order growth expected [3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 15.61 billion yuan, 18.47 billion yuan, and 21.76 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 1.04 billion yuan, 1.32 billion yuan, and 1.63 billion yuan [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.25 yuan, 1.58 yuan, and 1.95 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 30, 24, and 19 [5].