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安井食品(603345):2025 年中报点评:原材料涨价扰动,Q2盈利端短期承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 76.04 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.80%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.79% to 6.76 billion yuan [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a total revenue of 40.05 billion yuan, up 5.69% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 22.74% to 2.81 billion yuan [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 1.425 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 70.02% [1]. Revenue Performance - Revenue growth improved in Q2 2025 compared to Q1, with a year-on-year increase of 5.69% in Q2, contrasting with a decline of 4.13% in Q1 [2]. - The revenue from frozen dishes showed strong performance, with a notable increase of 26.05% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [2]. - All sales channels experienced sequential improvement in revenue during Q2 2025, with significant growth in "new retail and e-commerce" channels, which saw a year-on-year increase of 35.15% [2]. Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin decreased to 20.52% in the first half of 2025, down 3.39 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs [3]. - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 8.89%, a decrease of 1.75 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by the decline in gross margin and an increase in financial expenses [3]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvements helped mitigate the decline in net profit margin, which was less severe than the drop in gross margin [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 13.79 billion yuan, 15.40 billion yuan, and 16.95 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -7.12%, 11.66%, and 10.05% [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 18, 16, and 15 times, respectively [4].