Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Greentown China (03900.HK) [1][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was approximately 53.368 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was about 210 million yuan, down 89.7% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to uneven delivery schedules between the first and second halves of 2025, with a 22.7% year-on-year decrease in recognized area for the first half of 2025 [7]. - The company has maintained a stable gross profit margin of approximately 13.41% in the first half of 2025, compared to 13.09% in the same period of 2024 [7]. - Greentown China has actively pursued land acquisition, adding 35 new projects in the first half of 2025, with an expected sale value of approximately 50 billion yuan for the year [7]. - The company has a strong cash flow position, with cash and cash equivalents of about 66.8 billion yuan, which is 2.9 times the amount of short-term borrowings due within one year [7]. - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 to 0.40, 0.61, and 0.95 yuan, respectively, and sets a target price of 13.4 HKD for 2025, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30 times [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 159.135 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.6%, while for 2025, it is expected to decline by 9.6% to 143.805 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decrease significantly in 2025 to 1.022 billion yuan, a drop of 36.0% from 2024 [3]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to be 507.785 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 76.97% [4][9].
绿城中国（03900）：结算节奏影响业绩，拿地精准+好产品保障销售兑现