Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing pressure on traditional channels while making progress in new business areas. The first half of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 20.9% year-on-year, with a net profit drop of 77.5% [4]. - Weak demand and intensified competition are impacting the main business, but emerging businesses are showing positive developments. Beverage revenue fell by 22.1%, while canned food revenue decreased by 24.0% [4]. - The company is preparing for a seasonal sales boost in Q4 2025, focusing on product display and channel expansion [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2024A: 1854.78 million - 2025E: 1576.56 million - 2026E: 1612.82 million - 2027E: 1695.07 million - Revenue growth rates are projected at -3.53% for 2024, -15.00% for 2025, 2.30% for 2026, and 5.10% for 2027 [2][5]. - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2024A: 147.38 million - 2025E: 85.40 million - 2026E: 103.36 million - 2027E: 129.23 million - Profit growth rates are expected to be -47.06% for 2024, -42.05% for 2025, 21.02% for 2026, and 25.03% for 2027 [2][5]. - Gross Margin: - 2024A: 34.00% - 2025E: 29.80% - 2026E: 30.80% - 2027E: 31.80% [2][5]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024A: 0.34 - 2025E: 0.20 - 2026E: 0.24 - 2027E: 0.30 [2][5]. - Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: - 2024A: 51.65 - 2025E: 89.13 - 2026E: 73.65 - 2027E: 58.90 [2][5].
欢乐家（300997）：2025年中报业绩点评：传统渠道仍承压，新业务取得进展