劲仔食品（003000）：2025年中报点评：Q2进入调整期，内部扩张战略与外部弱势环境错配

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a period of adjustment in Q2 2025, with internal expansion strategies misaligned with external weak market conditions [7] - Revenue for Q2 2025 is under pressure due to weak external demand, particularly in traditional retail channels [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.4 billion, 3.5 billion, and 3.9 billion respectively, reflecting a decrease of 19% in 2025 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,065 million, with a year-on-year growth of 41.26% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 209.58 million, with a year-on-year increase of 68.17% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is expected to be 0.46 yuan per share [1] - The company’s gross margin for Q2 2025 is reported at 28.9%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 is 8.4%, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [7] Revenue Breakdown - For H1 2025, revenue from fish products, bean products, poultry products, and vegetable products is 7.6 billion, 1.1 billion, 2.0 billion, and 0.3 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +7.6%, +3.6%, -24.0%, and -10.7% [7] - Online channels generated 1.9 billion in revenue for H1 2025, a decline of 6.8% year-on-year, while offline channels achieved 9.4 billion, a slight increase of 0.9% [7] Strategic Outlook - The company is in a phase of internal adjustment and is focusing on the promotion of new products, such as konjac-based items [7] - The mismatch between the company's long-term expansion strategy and the current weak external environment is highlighted as a key concern [7]