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老铺黄金(06181):8月25日产品普遍调价12%-13%,下半年毛利率有望修复,看好新店增长贡献

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 251%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.351 billion yuan, up 291% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.59 yuan per share, totaling 1.806 billion yuan, which accounts for 77% of the adjusted net profit [1] - The brand's influence continues to expand, with a high-end positioning validated, driving significant revenue growth [2] - The average sales performance per store reached 459 million yuan in H1 2025, maintaining the top position in average revenue and sales per square meter among all jewelry brands in mainland China [2] - The company ranked first in the gold category sales on Tmall during the "618" shopping festival, achieving over 1 billion yuan in sales [2] - The brand loyalty membership increased to 480,000, up by 130,000 from the end of 2024, indicating a growing consumer base [2] - The company has a high overlap with international luxury consumer groups, with a 77.3% overlap with major luxury brands [2] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 38.1%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, but is expected to recover in the second half of the year due to a recent price adjustment of 12%-13% [2] - The company opened 41 self-operated stores in 16 cities by June 30, 2025, including new entries into high-end commercial centers [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 25.052 billion yuan, 34.524 billion yuan, and 41.938 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 195%, 38%, and 21% respectively [4] - The projected net profit for the same period is 4.953 billion yuan, 6.881 billion yuan, and 8.353 billion yuan, with growth rates of 236%, 39%, and 21% respectively [4] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is expected to be 23, 17, and 14 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]