Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-28 01:50Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the metal industry is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [1] Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish. In the short term, London gold and silver are expected to remain strong this week. The report suggests a strategy of buying on dips and recommends paying attention to the impact of the US PCE data on Friday [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market oscillated slightly higher. The US dollar index oscillated, US bond yields declined slightly, US stocks rose slightly, European stocks showed mixed performance, crude oil and Bitcoin rebounded slightly, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metal Index oscillated. The market focus is on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, personnel adjustments, and independence issues. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3451.8 per ounce, up 0.55%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $39.195 per ounce, up 0.2%. SHFE gold 2510 contract closed at 781.16 yuan per gram, up 0.12%; SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9305 yuan per kilogram, down 0.52%. The rise of the US dollar index during Wednesday's session put pressure on precious metals due to the weakening euro and French fiscal issues [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has slightly increased. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 11.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 88.7%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates is 5.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 49%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 45.5%. In December, the probability of unchanged rates is 0.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 10.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 48.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 40%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 2.58 tons to 965.5 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15274.7 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 38.2 tons to 1165.5 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 5 tons to 1281.8 tons as of the week ending August 22 [3] This Week's Focus - This week, focus on the revised value of the US Q2 GDP on Thursday night and the US July PCE data on Friday night. Regarding events, the European Central Bank will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting at 19:30 on Thursday, and Fed Governor Waller will speak on monetary policy at 06:00 on Friday [4] Price and Inventory Data - Precious Metals Price Table: SHFE gold main contract was at 781.16 yuan per gram, up 0.01%; SGX gold TD was at 777.62 yuan per gram, up 0.1%; CME gold main contract was at $3451.8 per ounce, up 0.25%; SHFE silver main contract was at 9305 yuan per kilogram, down 0.52%; SGX silver TD was at 9261 yuan per kilogram, down 0.54%; CME silver main contract was at $38.69 per ounce, down 0.01%; SHFE - TD gold was at 3.54 yuan per gram, down 17.48%; SHFE - TD silver was at 44 yuan per kilogram, up 43.33%; CME gold - silver ratio was 89.2169, up 0.26% [5][6] - Inventory and Position Table: SHFE gold inventory was 37503 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory was 1199.9335 tons, unchanged; SHFE gold position was 166596 lots, down 4.58%; SPDR gold position was 962.5 tons, up 0.27%; SHFE silver inventory was 1165.498 tons, up 3.39%; CME silver inventory was 15909.5998 tons, up 0.54%; SGX silver inventory was 1281.855 tons, down 0.39%; SHFE silver position was 280655 lots, down 7.63%; SLV silver position was 15274.694702 tons, unchanged [13] - Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview: The US dollar index was at 98.2033, down 0.01%; the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.1547, up 0.01%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 45565.23 points, up 0.32%; WTI crude oil spot was at $64.15 per barrel, up 1.42%; LmeS copper 03 was at $9773.5 per ton, down 0.74%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.24%, down 0.47%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was 1.81%, down 1.63%; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was 0.65%, unchanged [16]