Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 21 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.526 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, up 33.76% year-on-year [2][8]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 2.901 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.46%, and a net profit of 263 million yuan, which is a 27.37% increase year-on-year [2][8]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.7 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 60.2474 million yuan, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 15% [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2024 is 10.665 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 5.0% in 2025, 5.6% in 2026, and 5.8% in 2027 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 538 million yuan in 2024, with growth rates of 33.4% in 2025, 15.8% in 2026, and 14.4% in 2027 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.62 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.83 yuan in 2025, 0.97 yuan in 2026, and 1.10 yuan in 2027 [4]. Sales and Profitability Insights - The company has shown a significant improvement in sales structure and cost optimization, leading to a gross margin of 30.49% in Q2 2025, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios were 15.9%, 2.93%, 0.43%, and 0.77%, respectively, with an overall expense ratio decline of 0.38 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The net profit margin reached 9.36%, up 1.67 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong profitability [8]. Growth Drivers and Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain revenue growth in the second half of 2025, driven by the stability of ambient milk and continued growth in low-temperature milk [8]. - The focus on low-temperature milk and product innovation is anticipated to enhance revenue resilience and profitability [8]. - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.83, 0.97, and 1.10 yuan, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on earnings growth [8].
新乳业(002946):收入环比提速,盈利增长亮眼