南华期货锡风险管理日报-20250828

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The strengthening of tin prices on Wednesday may be related to the relatively tight supply. Trump's move to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could bring him closer to "controlling the Fed" if successful. The continuous decline of tin ingot social inventory for two weeks may provide upward momentum for tin prices. The demand side shows that tin solder enterprises have a good start - up situation and are willing to take delivery when the price is not higher than 270,000 yuan per ton. In the short - term, the tin supply has not increased, and any smelter maintenance or extended maintenance time is beneficial to tin prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 271,790 yuan, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concern about price increase, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511P260000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices - L利多因素: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's复产 being less than expected [4][5] - 利空因素: Tariff policy fluctuations, the inflow of Myanmar tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion speed slowing down and gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5] 3.3 Tin Futures and Spot Data - Tin Futures Data (Daily): The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 271,790 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract is 271,790 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract is 272,070 yuan/ton with no daily change; the LME Tin 3M is 34,510 US dollars/ton, up 380 US dollars with a daily increase of 1.11%; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.86, down 0.11 with a daily decline of 1.38% [6] - Tin Spot Data (Weekly): The Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot price is 272,000 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.68%; 1 tin premium is 200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan with a weekly decline of 50%; 40% tin concentrate is 260,000 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.76%; 60% tin concentrate is 264,000 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.73%; the price of 60A solder bar is 176,250 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.44%; the price of 63A solder bar is 184,250 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.66%; the price of lead - free solder is 278,250 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.83% [12] 3.4 Tin Import and Inventory Data - Tin Import and Processing Data (Daily): The tin import profit and loss is - 15,229.07 yuan/ton, up 1,537.58 yuan with a daily decline of 9.17%; the 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no daily change; the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,050 yuan/ton with no daily change [14] - Tin Inventory Data (Daily): The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin is 7,163 tons, up 11 tons with a daily increase of 0.15%; the warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 5,055 tons, down 33 tons with a daily decline of 0.65%; the warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1,251 tons, up 44 tons with a daily increase of 3.65%; the total LME tin inventory is 1,780 tons, down 5 tons with a daily decline of 0.28% [16]