YLT(SH:600197) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-28 02:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in Q2 performance, with total revenue of 1.07 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 19.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 163 million yuan, down 17.8% year-on-year. Q2 alone saw a revenue drop of 44.9% and a net profit drop of 52.7%, indicating performance below expectations [6] - Due to ongoing external demand pressures, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 223 million yuan, 235 million yuan, and 253 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -22.0%, 5.5%, and 7.5% [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 34x for 2025, 32x for 2026, and 30x for 2027, which is considered reasonable compared to peer valuations [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2.20 billion yuan in 2024, 1.68 billion yuan in 2025, 1.74 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.87 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.3%, -23.7%, 3.7%, and 7.2% respectively [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 52.3% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 5.7% [5] - The company’s Q2 revenue from liquor sales was 275 million yuan, down 44.2% year-on-year, with high-end liquor sales at 180 million yuan (down 39.8%), mid-range liquor at 63 million yuan (down 57.5%), and low-end liquor at 31 million yuan (down 29.6%) [6] Cash Flow and Receivables - The net cash flow from operating activities in Q2 was -153 million yuan, compared to -174 million yuan in the same period last year. Cash received from sales decreased by 24% year-on-year [6] - As of the end of Q2, the company had 59 million yuan in advance receipts, a decrease from 67 million yuan at the end of Q2 2024 [6]