WLY(SZ:000858) CMS·2025-08-28 02:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a Q2 revenue of 15.83 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.63 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.1% in revenue but a decline of 7.6% in profit, which aligns with previous expectations [1][7]. - The first half of the year saw a revenue of 52.77 billion yuan and a net profit of 19.49 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and 2.3%, respectively [7]. - The company is focusing on price adjustments and increasing channel investments to maintain sales volume, with the top five distributors accounting for 60% of total sales [7]. - The gross profit margin was under pressure due to increased costs, with a Q2 gross margin of 74.7%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 85.26 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 4% [2][15]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 29.36 billion yuan, also reflecting a decrease of 8% year-on-year [2][15]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) stands at 23.0% [3]. Sales and Distribution - The company’s sales strategy in H1 involved trading price for volume, with significant contributions from major distributors [7]. - The revenue from the company's flagship product, Wuliangye, increased by 4.6% year-on-year, while other liquor products saw a 2.7% increase [7]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company’s operating profit for 2023 is projected at 42.004 billion yuan, with a slight increase to 44.200 billion yuan in 2024 [2][15]. - The operating expenses are expected to rise, impacting profitability, with a projected operating profit margin of 49.6% for 2024 [16]. Market Performance - The current stock price is 126.62 yuan, with a market capitalization of 491.5 billion yuan [3]. - The report indicates a stable cash flow with a significant increase in cash receipts from sales, amounting to 31.23 billion yuan in Q2, up 12% year-on-year [7].