YTO(SH:600233) Xinda Securities·2025-08-28 02:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 35.883 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.90% to 1.831 billion yuan [2] - The company continues to experience high growth in business volume, with a market share increase of 0.3 percentage points [4] - The company is expected to enhance its operational quality through digitalization, scale effects, and a professional management system, maintaining a "Buy" rating [8] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 18.823 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.84%, with a net profit of 974 million yuan, down 6.76% [2] - The average revenue per package in the first half of 2025 was 2.19 yuan, a decrease of 6.55% year-on-year, primarily due to industry competition and a decline in average cargo weight [2] - The company’s operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 2.634 billion yuan, an increase of 13.99% year-on-year [5] Business Volume and Market Share - The company’s express delivery volume in the first half of 2025 reached 14.863 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 21.79%, with a market share of 15.5% [4] - The company’s express delivery volume for Q1 and Q2 2025 was 6.779 billion and 8.084 billion pieces, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.75% and 21.82% [4] Future Growth Potential - The company is focusing on international business and air freight as potential growth drivers, with a self-owned fleet of 13 aircraft and over 150 routes opened [6] - The air freight segment generated revenue of 0.887 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.11% [6] Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.102 billion yuan, 4.735 billion yuan, and 5.380 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7][8]