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蜜雪集团(02097):密雪冰城下沉能力再验证,咖啡副牌进入放量期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][16][17] Core Insights - The company achieved a 43% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 148.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 39.3% growth [1][8] - The company continues to expand its store network, with a total of 53,014 stores by mid-2025, including 52,996 franchise stores and 18 directly operated stores [1][10] - The company's focus on improving operational quality in Southeast Asia, while continuing to penetrate domestic markets, is evident in the net addition of 6,534 franchise stores during the first half of 2025 [2][10] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a gross profit margin of 31.6%, with a net profit margin of 18.1%, indicating effective cost control and a reduction in the tax rate [3][12] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 60.3 billion, 74.5 billion, and 92.2 billion yuan respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment of 9%, 12%, and 18% [3][16] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 15.88 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 26.5 [4][18] Store Expansion and Market Strategy - The company added 7,721 franchise stores and closed 1,187, resulting in a net increase of 6,534 franchise stores in the first half of 2025 [1][10] - The geographical distribution of stores shows a strong focus on mainland China, with 48,281 stores, while international markets are being explored, including Central Asia and the Americas [2][10] - The company is experiencing significant growth in its sub-brand, with over 7,800 stores for the brand "Lucky Coffee" as of August 22, 2025, and a strong product launch pipeline [3][16]