Workflow
迎驾贡酒(603198):最差时点已过,动销有望逐步改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][14]. Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenues of 3.16 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.13 billion yuan, down 18.19% year-on-year [3][4]. - The gross margin slightly improved to 73.62%, while the net profit margin was 35.76%, reflecting a minor year-on-year increase in gross margin but a slight decrease in net profit margin [3][4]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product strategy, particularly emphasizing its core products and improving its market presence, with expectations of gradual sales recovery in the latter half of the year [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 45.01 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 36 billion yuan and a total share capital of 800 million shares [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.16 billion yuan, a net profit of 1.13 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 1.09 billion yuan, all showing significant declines compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The sales collection for the first half of 2025 was 3.49 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year, with a net cash flow from operations of 317 million yuan, a decrease of 45.71% [3][4]. Market Conditions - The company faced challenges in sales due to inventory digestion and weak demand, particularly in the first half of 2025, but there are signs of improvement in sales performance as of July and August [4][6]. - The company is adjusting its marketing strategies and focusing on key channels to enhance sales performance, especially in preparation for the upcoming peak season [5][6]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see a gradual improvement in performance in the second half of 2025, with projections for revenue growth in subsequent years, despite the challenges faced in the first half [6][8].