中国重汽（000951）：系列点评五：25Q2业绩符合预期，政策驱动需求向上

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 18.44 yuan on August 27, 2025, corresponding to PE ratios of 12, 11, and 9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 met expectations, with revenue of 26.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 669 million yuan, up 8.10% year-on-year [1]. - The heavy truck export market remains robust, with a year-on-year increase in export volume of 5.17% in Q2 2025, indicating strong demand despite external challenges [3]. - The implementation of the old-for-new policy is expected to boost domestic demand, as it includes subsidies for older heavy trucks, which will likely enhance sales for the company [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.253 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.68% [2]. - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 358 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.00% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 15.44% [2]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 7.94%, with net margin at 3.85%, showing improvements in profitability [2]. Market Position - The company is a leader in heavy truck exports, with a market share of 45.68% in Q2 2025, benefiting from a favorable export environment [3]. - The heavy truck wholesale sales in China reached 274,300 units in Q2 2025, marking an 18.33% increase year-on-year, indicating a strong market recovery [2]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 56.16 billion yuan, 64.02 billion yuan, and 71.71 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.766 billion yuan, 2.018 billion yuan, and 2.327 billion yuan [5][9]. - The expected EPS for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.50 yuan, 1.72 yuan, and 1.98 yuan respectively [4][5].