温氏股份（300498）：肉猪量增本降，资产负债表持续修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 21.42 [1][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 49.9 billion for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.92%, and a net profit of RMB 3.475 billion, up 159% year-on-year. However, Q2 showed a revenue of RMB 25.5 billion, which was a 1.20% increase year-on-year but a 26.39% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The company has seen a continuous decline in pig farming costs, with estimated Q2 costs dropping to approximately RMB 12.4 per kilogram, leading to a significant profit advantage per head. The balance sheet is improving, although the chicken farming segment is facing losses due to a depressed market [1][2][3]. - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is beginning to show signs of "anti-involution," indicating a shift towards higher quality competition, which could benefit low-cost, high-quality producers like the company [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved RMB 32.7 billion in revenue from pig farming, a 16% increase year-on-year, driven by a 16% rise in sales volume to 16.62 million heads. The average profit per head for the first half is estimated to be around RMB 300 [2]. - The chicken farming segment generated RMB 15.1 billion in revenue, a 9% decrease year-on-year, with a sales volume of 598 million birds, reflecting an 18% drop in average selling price due to a relaxed supply situation [2]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights that the Ministry of Agriculture's monitoring indicates a reduction in the number of breeding sows, suggesting a potential stabilization in pig prices and improved profitability for the industry in the long term [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from its cost advantages and improved balance sheet, which may enhance its dividend-paying capacity as capital expenditures decrease [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast remains unchanged, with expected net profits of RMB 9.4 billion for 2025, RMB 9.4 billion for 2026, and RMB 19.4 billion for 2027. The company is valued at a price-to-book ratio of 2.97x for 2025 [4][8].