YADEA(HK:01585) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-28 05:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 19.186 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.11%, and a net profit of 1.649 billion yuan, up 59.5% [7] - The growth is primarily driven by government subsidies boosting end-consumer demand and increased enthusiasm among distributors for inventory replenishment due to clear policy regulations [7] - The company has raised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 3.009 billion yuan, 3.501 billion yuan, and 4.093 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.0, 1.1, and 1.3 yuan [7] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 12.1, 10.4, and 8.9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a solid market position with strong product and channel barriers [7] Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, the company’s total sales volume increased significantly, with electric bicycles and electric scooters generating a total revenue of 13.106 billion yuan, accounting for 68.3% of total revenue [8] - The total sales volume reached 8.7935 million units, up 37.77%, with an average selling price (ASP) of 2,182 yuan per unit, down 3.4% [8] - The revenue from electric bicycles was 9.298 billion yuan, up 49.01%, while electric scooters generated 3.808 billion yuan, up 7.39% [8] - Revenue from batteries and chargers was 5.713 billion yuan, up 40.52%, while revenue from electric two-wheeler components decreased to 367 million yuan, down 34.76% [8] Profitability - The company improved its product mix in H1 2025, resulting in a gross margin increase of 1.6 percentage points to 19.61% [9] - The sales, management, and R&D expenses accounted for 4.3%, 2.8%, and 3.3% of revenue respectively, with a focus on optimizing internal management [9] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 8.6%, reflecting a 1.4 percentage point increase year-on-year, driven by revenue growth and cost control measures [9] Outlook - The introduction of new national standards is expected to accelerate industry consolidation, with anticipated double-digit growth in overall shipments due to trade-in activities [10] - The company plans to leverage its advantages in product development and compliance to achieve excess growth in a recovering market, with a projected sales increase of 38% in H1 2025 [10] - The company is also expanding its product offerings in overseas markets such as Indonesia and Thailand, with expected growth potential [10]