SHCI(SH:601225) HTSC·2025-08-28 05:28Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" with a target price of RMB 32.72 [2]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure but remains a stable leader in the industry. The report emphasizes the company's strong cash flow supported by high electricity prices in Shaanxi and the synergy advantages of coal-electricity integration [6][10]. - The company has implemented a mid-year dividend for 2025 with a payout ratio of 5%, maintaining a dividend rate above 50% since 2020, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [6][10]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 77.983 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.19%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 7.638 billion, down 31.18% year-on-year. The second quarter saw revenue of RMB 37.821 billion, a decline of 14.60% year-on-year and 5.83% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of RMB 2.834 billion, down 54.55% year-on-year and 41.02% quarter-on-quarter [6][10]. - The coal production for the first half of 2025 reached 87.396 million tons, an increase of 1.15% year-on-year, while sales reached 125.989 million tons, up 0.92% year-on-year, both achieving historical highs [7]. - The average selling price of coal in the first half of 2025 was RMB 439.67 per ton, a decrease of 23.81% year-on-year, while the cost control remained strong with a unit cost of RMB 280 per ton, reflecting operational resilience [8]. Future Projections - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024 to be RMB 184.145 billion, with a projected net profit of RMB 22.360 billion. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at RMB 2.18, with a return on equity (ROE) of 22.35% [5][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of coal prices and maintain a robust profit capability due to its coal-electricity integration and geographical advantages [10]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 times for 2025, reflecting an increase in the target price to RMB 32.72 from the previous RMB 28.36, based on the expected performance of comparable companies [10].